How the Hormuz blockade affects Swiss exporters

The Invisible Risk

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most critical chokepoints in global trade. Around 20–25% of global seaborne oil trade – about 20 million barrels per day – normally passes through this strait (IEA, 2025; EIA, 2025). However, the relevance for Swiss companies goes far beyond energy imports. This is because the Gulf is an important supplier of a wide range of chemicals and plastics. Such materials are widely used in industrial manufacturing.

The blockade affects three indirect channels that are not highlighted in conventional import statistics – and which can have far-reaching consequences for export-oriented companies. The longer the blockade lasts, the more disruptive it is to supply chains: delivery times increase, inventory levels decrease, procurement prices rise, and alternative routes reach their capacity limits.

First Impact: Rising Input Costs

Industrial manufacturing depends on oil-based inputs: resins, polymers, adhesives, lubricants. These materials are directly linked to supply from the Gulf (IEA, World Energy Outlook). The Middle East is a key exporter of petrochemical feedstocks: it accounts for around 43% of global polyethylene exports (about 18.7 of 43.8 million tonnes worldwide) and around 56% of global methanol exports (about 17.5 of 31.1 million tonnes) – the vast majority of which normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz (International Trader Publications, 2025). Significant shares of monoethylene glycol are also affected. As the blockade continues, these supplies are either lost or must be procured at significantly higher costs via alternative routes. These petrochemical feedstocks are not only central to the Swiss chemical and pharmaceutical sectors, but also to the packaging, medical technology and precision industries.

Particularly critical: Helium. Qatar produces about a third of the global helium output (about 63 of 190 million m³, USGS, 2025). This gas is difficult to substitute for semiconductor manufacturing, fiber-optic production and medical technology. In the event of a prolonged blockade, Swiss precision instrument manufacturers and suppliers to the semiconductor industry could face supply bottlenecks.

Second Impact: Delays and Uncertainties in Supply Chains

Shipping companies have already rerouted their vessels. Ships diverted around the Cape of Good Hope take 7 to 12 days longer per voyage – the route lengthens from about 11,200 to about 15,500 nautical miles. In addition, there are increased risk insurance premiums.

In the event of a longer blockade, these effects will become much more severe: capacity bottlenecks on the alternative route around the Cape, port congestion in European transshipment ports and a persistent shortage of available containers could further drive freight rates up. For companies sourcing components from South or East Asia, this means not only delayed deliveries, but structurally unreliable supply chains for months.

The Suez blockade in 2021 and the Red Sea crisis in 2023/24 have shown how quickly such shocks can be transmitted to the entire shipping market.

Third Impact: Slowdown in Key Export Markets

The third channel runs through Swiss key export markets. Germany, Switzerland’s largest trading partner, is already under pressure from rising energy costs and weakening Eurozone demand – a longer blockade would further exacerbate this burden. UNCTAD forecasts that global merchandise trade growth could fall from 4.7% (2025) to 1.5–2.5% (2026) (UNCTAD, 2026); a prolonged Hormuz shock would accelerate and deepen this slowdown.

However, the crisis is leading to an increase in demand for clean-tech products (energy efficiency, grid management, energy storage) and alternative materials (e.g. packaging, plastic substitutes, textiles). Despite the risks of accelerated structural change, opportunities are opening up in the Gulf region in the areas of infrastructure, technology and AI.

What This Means for Your Business

The combined effect is already being felt: rising procurement prices, delayed deliveries and weak demand. The longer the blockade lasts, the greater the likelihood of supply bottlenecks. Companies that prepare early and can deliver or step in reliably are likely to find new market opportunities.

What Exporters Should Do Now

1. Analyze dependencies: Check all products related to petrochemicals, helium, aluminum and fertilizers – also at the level of your suppliers.
2. Identify alternative suppliers: Early on, explore sources of supply outside the Gulf (North America, EU internal markets, Southeast Asia).
3. Increase safety stocks: Create buffers for 6 to 12 weeks, especially for intermediate products with low substitutability.
4. Ensure customer communication: Proactively inform customers about possible delivery delays and realistically adjust delivery promises.
5. Prepare for further supply chain disruptions: The Strait of Hormuz is only one of many critical chokepoints that can lead to far-reaching consequences if disrupted. Identify other potential weak points in your supply chain – such as the Suez Canal, the Strait of Malacca or the Panama Canal – and develop concrete emergency plans for each scenario with alternative routes, suppliers and means of transport. Regular scenario exercises will help you to respond quickly and in a coordinated manner in the event of an emergency.

The effects of the blockade will be felt by Swiss companies – especially through indirect channels. It is crucial how well a company knows its dependencies and how quickly it can adapt.