Exports by Swiss SMEs in 2025: Cautious Optimism Despite Global Uncertainties

Swiss SMEs are cautiously optimistic about the future. Export sentiment, as measured by Switzerland Global Enterprise in its semi-annual survey of export-oriented Swiss SMEs, fell slightly over the last half-year from 62.8 to 57.1 points. However, it remains well above the growth threshold of 50 points. After a period of strong confidence following the brief but severe slump caused by the pandemic, sentiment has stabilized at around the 60-point mark for the past two and a half years.

Exports expected to increase over the course of the year

Almost one in two companies surveyed (48%) anticipates export growth for the coming half-year, whereas one in three (33%) predicts stagnation and 19% decline. SMEs see growth opportunities over the course of 2025 as being somewhat higher, with 59% forecasting growth, while only 11% expect a decline. One in six companies expects growth of more than 10%.

Currency risks by far the biggest concern

Factors inhibiting growth over the next six months are likely to include currency risks, which currently affect 56% of companies. The relationship with the EU takes second place. Once again, this is attracting more attention with the conclusion of the bilateral treaty negotiations (40%).

Trade barriers and protectionism (36%), tensions between the USA and China (34%) and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine (33%) are also primary concerns. This shows that the global uncertainty about the consequences of the new presidency in the USA is impacting Switzerland, too. It is gratifying to note that more than half of the companies consider themselves flexible enough to be able to react to the potential changes on a political and economic level.

In contrast, energy and commodity prices, the shortage of skilled workers and inflation are becoming significantly less important.

Europe is becoming even more important for Switzerland

Germany remains the most important export destination: 81% of SMEs intend to supply goods to Germany over the next six months. It is followed by Switzerland’s other neighbors France, Italy and Austria, as well as the USA, each with between 55% and 60%. At the same time, some European sales markets are making significant gains in the remaining spots in the leaderboard, further increasing Europe’s dominance. The USA and China are the only non-European markets in the top 12. India, Japan and the ASEAN countries are among the non-European markets experiencing the greatest growth.

India is in vogue

In light of these global uncertainties, a whopping 41% of the companies surveyed do not wish to enter new countries in the coming months. Companies that still want to expand are increasingly focusing on India: the subcontinent is currently the most important new market in the world for Switzerland. This is likely due in large part to the free trade agreement that has been negotiated. India is followed by the USA and the Gulf states.