Press Release
SME Export Sentiment: Moderate Confidence in a Volatile Environment
Christine Cavigelli-Gantenbein, Corporate Communications Manager
Jan 27, 2026
Swiss SMEs are looking forward to the next half-year with cautious optimism. Although export sentiment is again well above the growth threshold, the international environment remains beset by considerable uncertainty. The reduction in US tariffs in particular provides relief, while free trade agreements are gaining in importance and opening up additional prospects for many companies.
At 63.5 points, export sentiment among Swiss SMEs shows a slight recovery, once again further above the growth threshold than just six months ago. 57.2% of companies reckon exports will increase in the first half of 2026, 26.9% expect them to stay the same, and only 15.9% anticipate a decline. Indeed, the assessment for 2026 as a whole is even more positive. Switzerland Global Enterprise surveys export sentiment as part of a semi-annual survey of internationally active Swiss SMEs.
Despite the improved mood, there are few signs of a sustained reversal in the trend. Four out of five companies expect only minor changes in their export volume in the range of +/-10%. Export sentiment thus continues the zigzag pattern observed since 2022, which reflects the ongoing volatility of the global economy and the unpredictable nature of the global political environment.
US tariffs continue to weigh
US tariff policy is playing a key role in this regard. The reduction in US import tariffs for Switzerland from 39% to 15% a few days before the survey has had a tangible relieving effect and contributed significantly to the improved assessment. At the same time, a review of the past six months shows that exports have proved to be surprisingly robust despite the massive increase in tariffs during that period.
Nevertheless, US tariffs remain a key issue for the Swiss export industry. They affect nine in ten export companies, with three out of five companies feeling compelled to respond, such as through adjustments to margins and prices or through greater consideration of alternative sales markets. For more and more companies, the question of whether a stronger local presence in the US market makes sense is also becoming increasingly important.
Focus on free trade agreements and established markets
In this environment, free trade agreements are gaining in importance. Around two-thirds of companies already benefit from at least one agreement. Many SMEs also expect additional impetus from free trade agreements that have recently come into force or are in the pipeline, particularly in relation India, with one in two companies expecting to benefit from the corresponding free trade agreement. At the same time, Swiss SMEs will continue to need information and support if they are to better exploit the potential of these agreements.
Export markets are showing a high degree of stability. Germany remains by far the most popular sales market, followed by Italy and France. The US likewise remains a key export market for more than half of Swiss SMEs. In an uncertain environment, companies continue to rely heavily on proven destinations.
Video statements on current export sentiment by Alberto Silini, Senior Director Regional Consultants EMEA und Bastien Bovy, Consultant Middle East + Africa, are available here.
Methodology
SME export sentiment indications are based on a biannual survey of around 200 companies from a fixed panel of Swiss SMEs drawn from the following sectors: pharmaceutical/chemicals, machinery, cleantech, medtech, fintech, consumer goods, metals, paper, electrical engineering, precision instruments, services, ICT and food. SMEs indicate whether they expect their exports to grow, stagnate or decline in the current and upcoming half-year. To emphasize the forecast nature of SME export sentiment indications, expected export activity in the following half-year is weighted at 60%, with exports in the current half-year weighted at 40%. SME export sentiment can range from 0 to 100, whereby figures between 0 and 50 indicate an expected decline in exports and figures of 50 to 100 an expected rise in exports. In addition to the data on the export volume, participants provide further information, such as the reasons behind the change in their export volume, export markets, etc. This provides an accurate picture of the export activities of Swiss SMEs.
