SME Export Sentiment: Stable export sentiment despite ongoing crises

At 64.4 points, export sentiment among Swiss SMEs is slightly higher than that it was at the beginning of the year (63.5 points) and thus remains well above the growth threshold of 50 points. This is clear from the semi-annual survey of internationally active Swiss SMEs conducted by Switzerland Global Enterprise. One in two companies sees exports increasing over the next six months. The majority of companies are also expecting 2026 as a whole to develop positively.
This stable starting position is particularly noteworthy because the geopolitical and economic challenges have continued to increase, with the conflict in the Middle East having added an additional burden. The survey results indicate that the export industry has increasingly come to terms with this challenging environment. 

Middle East conflict causing shift in concerns
The strong Swiss franc remains the biggest challenge for export-oriented Swiss SMEs. 61% of the companies surveyed cited currency risks as a burden for the next few months. Behind this, however, the picture has changed significantly compared to January. Energy and raw material prices have become much more important, for instance, as have interruptions in the value chain. Both developments are closely linked to the war in the Middle East and its impact on energy and transport markets. The repercussions are correspondingly wide-ranging, with more than two thirds of the companies surveyed indicating they are negatively affected by the consequences of the conflict.

US tariffs becoming less explosive
While the Middle East conflict is causing a shift in concerns, US tariffs are losing something of their exceptional character. Their impact on the business activities of many companies will continue to be felt, but US tariff policy is far less frequently cited as a key challenge now than it was just six months ago.
This suggests that the initial uncertainty has abated and that companies are increasingly finding ways to cope with the new framework conditions. This finding is also supported by the wide array of countermeasures, ranging from price adjustments and the development of new markets to supply chain adjustments. At the same time, more and more Swiss companies are considering a stronger local presence in the US market: 40% of respondents would now contemplate taking such a step – more than twice as many as even a year ago.

Export markets remain stable
In these uncertain times, the choice of export destinations remains stable. While Europe dominates overall, Germany remains by far the most important destination country. The USA continues to be the most important non-European sales market. As regards the new markets that the companies want to tap into, however, the focus is primarily on Asian countries and regions, such as India, South Korea, and Japan.

Video statements on current export sentiment by Alberto Silini, Senior Director Regional Consultants EMEA, Xavier Cornut, Consultant Europe + CIS and Eleonora Di Canio, Consultant Southern Switzerland are available here.