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Export sentiment still riding high – neither trade tensions nor Brexit cloud the outlook

SME Export Outlook Q3 2018

The record-breaking momentum of recent months may have subsided somewhat, but export sentiment among Swiss SMEs remains at a very high level. Neither looming trade tensions nor Brexit diminish the short-term international growth opportunities identified by Swiss SMEs, as is evident in the current survey of export sentiment conducted by Switzerland Global Enterprise (S-GE).

SME Export Outlook

Nearly 60% of the SMEs surveyed believe exports will continue rising in the third quarter of 2018. The Credit Suisse Export Barometer supports this upbeat outlook. At 1.78 points, the reading is somewhat below the record levels posted in recent months, but nonetheless still well within the growth zone. The Credit Suisse forecast for 2018 remains unchanged with a 4% increase in exports.

Sascha Jucker, Credit Suisse economist, explains: “We attribute this decline in the barometer to the slightly dampened euphoria in European industry. Given the developments in international trade policy and the fact that expectations were very, very high, this comes as no surprise. In any case, our outlook for growth in Europe remains positive. Swiss exporters should benefit from this expansion.”

Alberto Silini, Head of Consultancy at Switzerland Global Enterprise (S-GE), adds: “Although export sentiment has slipped from the record posted in the first six months of the year, it is still stable at a very high level. The export outlook is very bright and it’s a good time for SMEs to access new markets. Trade barriers can be overcome with good preparation!”

 Video statements (in German) on current export sentiment by Sascha Jucker, Credit Suisse economist, and Alberto Silini, Head of Consulting at Switzerland Global Enterprise.

The SME Export Outlook for the fourth quarter of 2018 will be published on October 11, 2018.

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