According to the latest S-GE survey conducted between mid-November and mid-December, export sentiment has bounced back to the level it was at prior to the outbreak of the pandemic, and is also well above the growth threshold when viewed on a long-term basis. According to the survey results, looking forward to the first semester of 2021, 59% of SMEs anticipate rising exports, while 27% expect stagnation and 14% are bracing themselves for a further decline. For the year 2021 as a whole, perspectives are even more optimistic, as 72% of the surveyed SMEs expect a rise in exports. At the same time, the new year will continue to be dominated by the coronavirus crisis. For 71% of surveyed SMEs, the associated uncertainties remain the dominant theme. The majority of the survey participants are part of the manufacturing sector.
The Credit Suisse Export Barometer, which illustrates foreign demand for Swiss products, backs up this positive outlook. According to Credit Suisse, over the course of the last six months the prospects for Switzerland’s export industry have brightened tangibly following last year’s slump in confidence. Purchasing managers indices point to a significant improvement in sentiment in global manufacturing since the spring of 2020. This can be expected to support demand for Swiss exports over the coming semester.
Tiziana Hunziker, an Economist at Credit Suisse, commented: “Unlike the services sector, global manufacturing has largely been spared the fallout from the second wave of Covid-19. Export sentiment in the industrial sector is accordingly positive. The Export Barometer is therefore indicating an increase in exports over the next semester.”
Alberto Silini, Head of Consulting at Switzerland Global Enterprise (S-GE), added: “At the end of 2020, export-oriented Swiss SMEs have returned to optimism. Our survey confirms that SMEs have succeeded in stabilizing their international business, maintaining market shares and adapting their business models to the new reality in recent months. This shows once again the dynamic among crisis-tested Swiss SMEs. It remains to be seen whether their expectations will be met in light of further developments of the pandemic.”
Further information on the SME export outlook for the first half of 2021 can be found in the brochure in the download section.
Video statements (in German) on current export sentiment by Alberto Silini, Head of Consulting at Switzerland Global Enterprise, are available here.
The SME Export Outlook for the second semester of 2021 will be published on July 1, 2021.